The UK government is experimenting with a fresh approach on Brexit, but this isn't equivalent to a change in direction. The adjustment is primarily tonal.
In the past, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves described Britain's separation from Europe as a permanent feature of the national situation, difficult to manage perhaps, but ultimately unavoidable. Currently, they are willing to acknowledge it as a genuine affliction.
Speaking at a regional investment conference this week, the chancellor included EU withdrawal alongside the COVID-19 and austerity as causes of ongoing financial stagnation. She reiterated this viewpoint during an IMF gathering in the US capital, noting that the national efficiency issue has been compounded by the manner in which the Britain departed from the European Union.
This represented a precisely formulated declaration, assigning damage not to Brexit itself but to its execution; faulting the politicians who negotiated it, not the voters who endorsed it. This differentiation will be crucial when the budget is presented next month. The aim is to assign some fiscal difficulties to the deal negotiated by Boris Johnson without seeming to disrespect the hopes of leave voters.
For those who value evidence, the financial debate is largely settled. An independent fiscal watchdog calculates that Britain's long-term productivity is four percent reduced than it would have been with continued EU membership.
In addition to the expenses from new trade barriers, there has been a ongoing drop in corporate spending caused by governmental uncertainty and unclear rules. There was also the lost potential of government energy being redirected toward a objective for which little planning had been made, since few proponents had seriously considered the practical implications of making it happen.
When facts are undeniable, authorities find it hard to stay impartial. The central bank chief told last week's IMF meeting that he takes no side on Brexit before adding that its impact on growth will be adverse for the coming years.
He forecast a slight positive adjustment over the long term, which provides scant relief to a treasury head who must tackle a major funding gap soon. Taxes are set to rise, and Reeves wants the citizens to understand that Brexit is a partial cause.
The statement is worth making because it is accurate. This doesn't ensure electoral advantage from saying it. The same reality was apparent when the government presented its previous tax-raising budget and during the general election campaign, which the party fought while sidestepping the inevitability of higher levies.
At this stage, with the administration being established but unpopular, explaining economic hardship comes across as justifying failure to numerous constituents. There might be more advantage in faulting the Tories for everything if they were the sole opposition and a credible threat. The usual ruling party tactic in a two-party system is to claim cleanup duty the opponent's errors and caution voters. The emergence of another party makes things harder.
Policy differences between the two parties are minimal, but the electorate notice personal rivalry more than shared beliefs. Those attracted to Nigel Farage due to distrust in establishment—especially on border policy—don't see Reform and the Tories as aligned groups. The Conservatives has a record of permitting entry, while the other does not—a contrast Farage will repeatedly emphasize.
Farage is reluctant to discuss Brexit, partly because it is a achievement jointly owned with Tories and partly because there are few benefits to highlight. When pressed, he may argue that the vision was undermined by flawed implementation, but even that explanation acknowledges disappointment. Simpler to change the subject.
This explains why the government feels more confident raising the issue. The prime minister's address to supporters marked a significant shift. Earlier, he had addressed UK-EU relations in dry, technical terms, focusing on a relationship reset that targeted uncontentious obstacles like border inspections while steering clear of the divisive cultural issues at the core of the Brexit aftermath.
In his speech, the PM did not fully embrace pro-EU arguments, but he hinted at awareness of past claims. He referenced "Brexit lies on the side of that bus"—referring to leave campaign pledges about health service money—in the framework of "dubious solutions" sold by leaders whose easy fixes worsen the nation's problems.
Leaving Europe was compared to Covid as difficult experiences endured by ordinary people in recent years. Comparing Brexit to a disease signals a tougher tone, even if the economic measures currently under discussion in Brussels remain unchanged.
The aim is to connect Farage to a well-known example of political mis-selling, suggesting he cannot be trusted; that he capitalizes on frustration and creates conflict but lacks governing competence.
Recent suspensions of local representatives from the party's administrative wing reinforces that message. Recorded videos of a online meeting showed internal disputes and recrimination, highlighting the difficulties inexperienced figures face when delivering public services on limited budgets—much harder than campaigning about reducing inefficiency or controlling immigration.
This line of attack is productive for the government, but it depends on the government's service delivery being sufficiently strong that electing Reform seems a dangerous experiment. Additionally, this is a strategy for a future campaign that may not occur until 2029. If Starmer and Reeves wish to be seen as alternatives to populism, they must demonstrate meanwhile with a positively defined agenda of their own.
There are limits to what is possible with a change in tone, and time is short. It would be simpler to argue now that EU exit is harmful and Farage a fraud if they had stated this before. What additional choices might they have? Do they merit praise for acknowledging it today when other excuses have failed? Certainly. But the issue with reaching the obvious conclusion via the most circuitous route is that people question the procrastination. Beginning with honesty is faster.