From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. The international community may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.